European Union Voting and the Dutch ‘Double No’: The 2005 and 2016 Referendums
Keywords:
European integration, citizens and EU governance, referendums, NetherlandsAbstract
What caused Dutch citizens to vote ‘no’ in the 2005 and 2016 referendums? How do these
referendum outcomes compare to voting patterns in European Union (EU) member states more generally?
How are national-level referendums related to European integration? In a comparative analysis, we explore
such questions based on information and data on two Dutch referendums, exploring the driving forces of voter
opposition in light of more general theories of EU-related voting. We find that perceived threats to identity
and culture mattered in the ‘Dutch double no’, while economic cost-benefit calculations and the actual contents
of the votes played a less dominant role.
References
Aarts, K. & van der Kolk, H. (2006). Understanding the Dutch “No”: The Euro, the East, and the Elite. PS: Political Science
and Politics, 39, 2, pp. 243-246.
Atikcan, E.O. (2015). The Netherlands: The Reversal Referendum. In Framing the European Union: The Power of Political
Arguments in Shaping European Integration, pp. 130-166. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Atikcan, E.O. (2021). The Shifting Will of the People: The Case of EU Referendums. In: Smith, J. (eds) The Palgrave
Handbook of European Referendums. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-55803-1_6.
Berezin, M. (2006). Appropriating the “No”: The French National Front, the Vote on the Constitution, and the “New” April
PS: Political Science & Politics, 39, 2, pp. 269-272.
Bos, W. (2005). A Vote against Neo-liberalism. International Viewpoint Outline, No. 368, June. Available electronically at:
http://www.europe-solidaire.org/spip.php?article698.
Brouard, S. & Tiberj, V. (2006). The French Referendum: The Not So Simple Act of Saying Nay. PS: Political Science &
Politics, 39, 2, pp. 261-268.
Brug, W. van der & Fennema, M. (2003). Protest or Mainstream? How the European Anti-immigrant Parties have Developed
into Two Separate Groups by 1999. European Journal of Political Research, 42, 1, pp. 55-76.
Brug, W. van der (2003). How the LPF Fuelled Discontent: Empirical Tests of Explanations of LPF-support. Acta Politica, 38,
, pp. 84-91.
Carey, S. (2002). Undivided Loyalties: Is National Identity an Obstacle to European Integration? European Union Politics
(4), pp. 387-413.
Crum, B. (2005). EU Referendum tests the Dutch Political Establishment. Centre for European Policy Studies, 10 May 2005.
http://www.ceps.be/Article.php?article_id=423.
Crum, B. (2007). Party Stances in the Referendums on the EU Constitution. European Union Politics, 8 (1), pp. 61-82.
Cuperus, R. (2005). Why the Dutch Voted No. Anatomy of the New Euroscepticism in Old Europe. Wiarda Beckman
Foundation, paper presented on the conference “Reflection of French and Dutch EU Constitutional Referenda - Lessons for
Europe. EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy.
http://www.unizar.es/euroconstitucion/Treaties/Treaty_Const_Rat_netherlands.htm
de Jong, Sijbren (4 April 2016). Why the Dutch referendum on Ukraine is a joke. EU Observer.
https://euobserver.com/opinion/132908.
De Vreese, C. (2004). Why European citizens will reject the EU Constitution. Working Paper 115, Center for European Studies,
Harvard University. http://www.ces.fas.harvard.edu/publications/docs/pdfs/deVreese.pdf.
De Vreese, C. H. & Boomgaarden, H. G. (2005). Projecting EU Referendums: Fear of Immigration and Support for European
Integration. European Union Politics, 6(1), pp. 59–82.
Dehousse, R. (2006), The Unmaking of a Constitution – Lessons from the European Referenda, Constellations, 13(2), pp. 151-
Dekker, P. & Wennekers, C. (2005). Publieke opinies over Europa: tussen abstracte steun en concrete ergernissen.
Internationale Spectator, 59, 12, pp. 627-630.
Dixhoorn, A. (2006). De stem des volks; Publieke opinie, opinie onderzoek en democratie. Den Haag: Sociaal en Cultureel
Planbureau.
Dutch Referendum Study 2005 (2005). Dataset used in Aarts and Van der Kolk (eds.), Nederlanders en Europa: Het
referendum over de Europese grondwet. Amsterdam: Bert Bakker.
Elzinga, D. J. (2005). Het referenduminstrument, in Aarts and Van der Kolk (eds.). Nederlanders en Europa: Het referendum
over de Europese grondwet, Amsterdam: Bert Bakker, pp. 123-144.
Eurobarometer 56.2, 57.1, 58.1, 59.1, 60.0, 61.0, 62.0, 63.4, 64.2 and 65.0. Available at
http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/index_en.htm.
European Commission (2006). Flash Eurobarometer 172 (The European Constitution: Post-Referendum in the Netherlands).
GESIS Data Archive, Cologne. ZA4421 Data file Version 1.0.0
European Parliamentary Research Service (2016). Referendums on EU issues. PE 582.041, available at
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2016/582041/EPRS_BRI(2016)582041_EN.pdf.
Follesdal, A. & Hix, S. (2006). Why There is a Democratic Deficit in the EU: A Response to Majone and Moravcsik. Journal
of Common Market Studies, 44, 3, pp. 533-562.
Gabel, M. (1998). Public Support for European Integration: An Empirical Test of Five Theories. Journal of Politics, 60, 2, pp.
-354.
Garry, J.; Marsh, M. & Sinnott, R. (2005). ‘Second-order’ versus ‘Issue-voting’: Effects in EU Referendums: Evidence from
the Irish Nice Treaty Referendums. European Union Politics, 6(2), pp. 201–221.
Guiraudon, V. (2005). Why and Whither? The Referendal nos of Spring 2005. EUSA Review, 18, 14, p. 1.
Hobolt, S. B. & Brouard, S. (2011). Contesting the European Union? Why the Dutch and the French Rejected the European
Constitution. Political Research Quarterly, 64(2), pp. 309–322. http://www.jstor.org/stable/23056393
Hobolt, S. B. (2009). Europe in Question – Referendums on European Integration. Oxford: University Press.
Hooghe, L. & Marks, G. (2005). Calculation, Community and Clues: Public Opinion on European Integration. European Union
Politics, 6, 4, pp. 419-443.
Hooghe, L.; Marks, G. & Wilson, C. J. (2002). Does Left/Right Structure Party Positions on European Integration?
Comparative Political Studies, 35, pp. 965-989.
https://dbk.gesis.org/dbksearch/SDESC2.asp?no=4421&search=Flash&search2=&DB=E.
Hug, Simon (2002). Voices of Europe: Citizens, Referendums, and European Integration. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield.
Jakobs, Kristof (2016b). Stemgedrag en stemmotieven. In Kristof Jakobs (ed.), Het Oekraine-referendum: Nationaal
Referendum Onderzoek 2016. Stichting KiezersOnderzoek Nederland (SKON), pp. 14-19.
Jakobs, Kristof (2016c). Attitudes ten aanzien van het akkoord en de uitslag. In Kristof Jakobs (ed.), Het Oekraïne-referendum:
Nationaal Referendum Onderzoek 2016. Stichting KiezersOnderzoek Nederland (SKON), pp. 20-27.
Jakobs, Kristof, ed. (2016a). Het Oekraïne-referendum: Nationaal Referendum Onderzoek 2016. Stichting KiezersOnderzoek
Nederland (SKON).
Keohane, D. (2005). ‘Don’t Forget the Dutch Referendum. Briefing note of Centre for European Reform. Available at
http://www.unizar.es/euroconstitucion/Treaties/Treaty_Const_Bibliography.htm.
Kleinnijehuis, J.; Takens, J. & Van Atteveldt, W. H. (2005), Toen Europa de Dagbladen ging Vullen. In: K. Aarts & H. Van
der Kolk, eds. Nederlanders en Europa. Het Referendum over de Europese Grondwet. Amsterdam: Uitgeverij Bart Bakker.
Kleinnijenhuis et al. (2005). Toen Europa de dagbladen ging vullen’, in Aarts and Van der Kolk (eds.), Nederlanders en
Europa: Het referendum over de Europese grondwet, Amsterdam: Bert Bakker, pp. 123-144.
Kranenburg, M. (2007). Nederland speelt geen enkele rol meer. NRC Handelsblad.
http://www.nrc.nl/binnenland/article612094.ece/Nederland_speelt_geen_enkele_rol_meer (accessed March 5th, 2007).
Lubbers, M. (2008). Regarding the Dutch Nee to the European Constitution: A Test of the Identity, Utilitarian and Political
Approaches to Voting No. European Union Politics, 9, 1, pp. 59-86.
Lucardi, P. (2005), De Campagne: David tegen Goliath? In: K. Aarts & H. Van der Kolk, eds., Nederlanders en Europa. Het
Referendum over de Europese Grondwet. Amsterdam: Uitgeverij Bart Bakker.
Marks, Gary & Hooghe, Liesbet (2003). National Identity and Support for European Integration. WZB Discussion Paper, No.
SP IV 2003-202, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin fur Sozialforschung (WZB), Berlin.
Mendez, F.; Mendez, M. & Triga, V. (2014). Referendums and the European Union – A Comparative Inquiry. Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press.
Milner, H. (2006). YES to the Europe I want; NO to this one: Some Reflections on France's Rejection of the EU Constitution.
PS: Political Science & Politics, 39, 02, pp. 257-260.
Nijeboer, Arjen (2005). The Dutch referendum. European Constitutional Law Review.
Price, V. (1992). Communication Concepts 4: Public Opinion. Newbury Park: Sage
Qvortrup, M. (2013). Direct Democracy – A Comparative Study of the Theory and Practice of Government by the People.
Manchester: Manchester University Press.
Social and Cultural Planning Office of the Netherlands, SCP (2003). Sociaal Europa. Eén Europees Sociaal Beleid is nog een
brug te ver (Bijlage bij de Staat van de Europese Unie 2004). Europese Verkenning 1. Voorburg: SCP.
http://www.scp.nl/publicaties/boeken/2003101601/Europese_verkenning_1-hoofdstuk1.pdf.
Social and Cultural Planning Office of the Netherlands, SCP (2004). Bestemming Europa. Immigratie en integratie in de
Europese Unie (Bijlage bij de Staat van de Europese Unie 2005). Europese Verkenning 2. Voorburg: SCP.
http://www.scp.nl/publicaties/boeken/2004092101/Bestemming_Europa.pdf.
Social and Cultural Planning Office of the Netherlands, SCP (2005). Europese tijden. De publieke opinie over Europa en
Arbeidstijden, vergeleken en verklaard (Bijlage bij de Staat van de Europese Unie 2006), Europese Verkenning 3. Voorburg:
SCP. http://www.scp.nl/publicaties/boeken/2005092001.shtml.
Startin, N. & Krouwel, A. P. M. (2013). Euroscepticism re-galvanized: The Consequences of the 2005 French and Dutch
Rejections of the EU Constitution. Journal of Common Market Studies, 51(1), pp. 65-84.
Steenbergen, Marco R.; Edwards, Erica E. & Catherine E. de Vries (2007). Who’s Cueing Whom? Mass-Elite Linkages and
the Future of European Integration, European Union Politics (8:1), pp. 13-35.
Steenvoorden , Eefje (2016). Rol van maatschappelijke onvrede bij referendum. In Kristof Jakobs (ed.), Het Oekraïnereferendum:
Nationaal Referendum Onderzoek 2016. Stichting KiezersOnderzoek Nederland (SKON), 59-66
Taggart, P. (2005). The Politics of Bifurcation: The 2005 Referendums in France and the Netherlands. EUSA Review, 18, 14,
pp. 1-4.
Tammes, P. & Oude Nijhuis, D. (2011) Contextual Influences and the Dutch Rejection of the EU Constitutional Treaty:
Understanding Municipality Differences. Tijdschrift voor economische en sociale geografie, 102:4, pp. 455-467.
Toonen, T. A. J.; Steunenberg, B. & Voermans, W. J. M. (2005). Saying no to an European constitution? Dutch revolt, Enigma
or pragmatism. Zeitschrift für Staats- und Europawissenschaften, 3(4), pp. 594-619.
van den Akker, Joost (2021). Chapter 32. The Dutch Referendum on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, In. Smith, J.
(Ed.). The Palgrave Handbook of European Referendums, pp. 671-693. Palgrave Macmillan.
Van der Kolk, H, & Aarts, K. (2005). ‘Opkomst en uitslag’, in Aarts and Van der Kolk (eds.). Nederlanders en Europa: Het
referendum over de Europese grondwet, Amsterdam: Bert Bakker, pp. 183-206.
Van der Kolk, Henk (2016). De opkomst. In Kristof Jakobs (ed.). Het Oekraïne-referendum: Nationaal Referendum Onderzoek
Stichting KiezersOnderzoek Nederland (SKON), pp. 28-39.
Van der Loo, Guillaume (2016). The Dutch Referendum on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement: Legal options for
navigating a tricky and awkward situation. CEPS Commentary.
Van der Meer, T.W.G.; Wagenaar, C.C.L. & Jacobs, K. (2022). The Rise and Fall of the Dutch Referendum Law (2015 –
: Initiation, Use, and Abolition of the corrective, Citizen-initiated, and non-binding Referendum. Acta Politica, 57, pp.
-116.
Van der Meer, Tom (2016). Vertrouwen in nationale en internationale politiek. In Kristof Jakobs (ed.), Het Oekrainereferendum:
Nationaal Referendum Onderzoek 2016. Stichting KiezersOnderzoek Nederland (SKON), pp. 50-58.
Van Klingeren, Marijn (2016). Informatievoorziening en campagne. In Kristof Jakobs (ed.), Het Oekraine-referendum:
Nationaal Referendum Onderzoek 2016. Stichting KiezersOnderzoek Nederland (SKON), pp. 40-49.
Voerman, G. (2005). De Nederlandse Politieke Partijen en de Europese Integratie. In: K. Aarts & H. Van der Kolk, eds.
Nederlanders en Europa. Het Referendum over de Europese Grondwet. Amsterdam: Uitgeverij Bart Bakker.
Vollaard, H. & Boer, B. (2006). Euroscepticism in the Netherlands’, paper presented at the EpsNet conference ‘European in
Context: Debating the Project. Central European University, Budapest, June 16 and 17.
http://www.unizar.es/euroconstitucion/library/working%20papers/Vollaard%202006.pdf.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 EIRP Proceedings
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
You are free to:
- Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
- Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material
- for any purpose, even commercially.
- The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
Under the following terms:
-
Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
- No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.